The Government of the Murmansk Region has submitted to the regional Duma a forecast of the socio-economic development of the region for 2026 and the planned period of 2027 and 2028. It has been compiled, among other things, taking into account the dynamics of the basic economic complexes, as well as the implementation of investment projects in the region that support employment and create new jobs, support and strengthen the economy, and contribute to the development of cities and towns in the Murmansk region.
The forecast provides for further economic development, taking into account the ongoing reorientation to new export markets and the impact of anti-Russian sanctions. The document notes that, despite unprecedented external pressure, the overall economic situation in the region continues to remain stable. The region's enterprises continue to respond to new challenges in the field of sales of finished products, supplies of resources and equipment.
In 2026, the gross regional product is projected to grow to 1.3 trillion rubles, or up to 2.0 million rubles per capita. In 2026-2028, GRP growth will reach a rate of 101.3 – 102.3% per year and by the end of the forecast period will exceed the level of 2024 by 4.1%.
The industrial production index in 2026 will be supported by growth in all enlarged industrial sectors and will amount to 101.4%. The volume of shipped products will increase to 1.1 trillion rubles. In 2026-2028, industrial production is projected to grow by an average of 2.0% per year.
The volume of investments in fixed assets in 2026 may increase to more than 350 billion rubles, and by 2028 – to more than 400 billion rubles with an average annual growth rate of 101.3%.
Among the key investment projects of the Murmansk region are: the integrated development of the Murmansk transport hub, the creation of a ship repair cluster; the development of the production of Kovdorsky GOK JSC and the resource base of the Kirov branch of Apatit JSC; the implementation of the Severny Mine project. Opening and development of reserves up to 730 Horizon and the second stage of construction of a mining and processing plant based on the Oleniy Ruchey deposit of apatite-nepheline ores, renovation and development of the Murmansk Sea Fishing Port.
In addition, the development of a project concept for the creation of an industrial park in the region has begun; projects are being implemented to develop promising Russian lithium ore deposits in the Murmansk Region, and a project is being worked out to modernize a unique enterprise for the development of the entire rare and rare earth metals industry.
Work continues on the issue of gasification of the Murmansk region with mainline natural gas. This key decision, supported by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, will create unique conditions for the implementation of investment projects to modernize existing and create new industries and industries.
In 2026, against the background of work on new projects, the volume of construction work will increase to more than 60 billion rubles, or up to 104.4% compared to the level of 2025. In 2028, the value of the indicator will increase to more than 70 billion rubles. It should be noted that in January – August 2025, 81.6 thousand square meters of the total area of residential premises were put into operation, or 140% of the level of the same period in 2024. In total, 111.4 thousand square meters of the total housing area are planned to be commissioned in 2025 (154.4% compared to the level of 2024). In 2026, the implementation of large-scale housing construction projects, as well as programs to stimulate housing construction, will continue, and the volume of housing commissioning will increase to 114.6 thousand square meters. meters. In total, over the period 2026-2028, it is planned to introduce more than 356 thousand square meters. meters.
The tourist flow to the Murmansk Region will also continue to grow, and in 2026 it may reach more than 870,000 people (an increase of 10%). In the forecast period, the creation of new routes and the development of areas for observing the Northern Lights will continue. The expected growth in the number of visitors to the Murmansk Region by 2028 will be about 39.8%.
In 2026-2028, subject to a stable economic situation, as well as the implementation of measures to ensure sustainable socio-economic development of the region against the background of the preferential regimes of the AZRF and the TOP "Capital of the Arctic", an increase in the standard of living of residents of the Murmansk region is expected.
The registered unemployment rate will remain at a record low. According to the forecast, in 2026, the number of registered unemployed at the end of the year will decrease by 5.9% and amount to about 1.6 thousand people, the registered unemployment rate is expected to be 0.5%, and the total unemployment rate is 2.3%.
The document also provides the expected results of socio-economic development in 2025.
The socio-economic situation in the Murmansk region is marked by relatively stable performance of key sectors of the economy, while in some areas there are consequences of the impact of anti-Russian sanctions. Thus, the decline in production in the manufacturing industry, due to external factors, had a negative impact on the formation of the index of industrial production in metallurgy, food industry and ship repair. The restrictions imposed by the anti-Russian sanctions have generally had negative consequences for the fishing industry. With an overall increase in the average per capita monetary income of the population, the average accrued salary and the wage fund, there is a slowdown in their growth compared to 2024. Taking into account the level of inflation and its volatility, the physical volume of consumer activity indicators of the population has been slightly reduced during 2025, while maintaining their growth at current prices.
At the same time, the overall economic situation in the region continues to remain stable. The problems faced by businesses across the country in replacing imported components in production chains and components, and searching for alternative transport routes are being solved and will be solved.
/ Ministry of Information Policy of the Murmansk Region /